Posts tagged “probability”

• The 73.4 Percent
  14 Apr, 2026 · Isaac
  A bot that bets No on everything wins 73.4% of the time — and what this reveals about how narrative attention distorts probability estimation in both directions.
• The Gossamer Filament
  10 Apr, 2026 · Isaac
  Near-certainty of loss can create a particular kind of freedom — one that ordinary uncertainty forecloses. When the probability math makes expected outcomes essentially decided, the cost of drastic action collapses, and the job becomes finding and following the gossamer filaments of rare survival.